E-Mini Trading: Let’s Start at the Beginning With No Hype
It’s not unusual for me to peruse prominent (and some not so prominent) e-mini trading education sites and see what’s being promoted and how it’s being promoted. Often times, I find the promises and guarantees espoused on these sites appalling. On the other hand, there are a handful of training educators who seem honest and realistic in the manner in which they portray e-mini trading. That being said, many of the sites promote e-mini trading as something akin to the California gold rush. It is not uncommon to see e-mini trading portrayed as a method to “get rich quick” with a minimal amount of effort.For the record: E-mini trading is not a get rich quick scheme and takes a considerable amount of effort and time to become proficient and profitable. Further, if an individual believes he or she can read an e-book or two and then slay the markets they are hopelessly mistaken. In this article, I would like to present an accurate portrayal of what e-mini trading “is,” and what e-mini trading “is not.” Some may find my description of the path to e-mini trading success daunting and be terribly disappointed. That’s okay with me because every potential new trader should have a clear idea of this high competition arena they are considering for a career.Let’s start with a clear idea of what e-mini trading is not:E-mini trading is not a “get rich quick” profession. The stark truth is that the majority of people who embark on a career in trading lose some or all of their money.There are very few individuals who are “natural” traders. The vast majority of new traders will find many of the concepts in e-mini trading unnatural and confusing. It takes time and experience to become a consistently profitable e-mini trader.Most trading books or manuals present a specific system for a new trader to study. The system approach to trading is fraught with danger. These systems may work very well under certain market conditions, but the market is a creature of many moods and very few systems work well in all market situations. The vast majority of mechanical e-mini trading systems fail miserably in non-trending or consolidating markets.Most consistently profitable traders are highly disciplined in their approach to the market and have developed their trading style and discipline through years of study and experience.One common characteristic I see on many trading sites is a quote that suggests that you should be able to double your account value on a monthly basis. Some sites even suggest that you may earn even more than double your account value on a monthly basis. It’s not unusual to see headlines on these sites claim returns ranging from 300% to infinity.It is highly improbable that you are going to double your account on a monthly basis. It’s improbable that I am going to double my account on a monthly basis. Granted, I have had some exceptional months in my trading career, but the notion that I can consistently double my account each month is preposterous.Fact: In the first several months of your e-mini trading career you will be lucky to break even. Even more to the point, most new traders lose considerable sums of money during the early stages of their trading career. The statistics suggest that 50% of all new traders lose their entire trading account balance.Many sites lay claim to have discovered a revolutionary new approach to trading that virtually assures profits. While the methodology of trading has evolved rapidly over the last several years, I am unaware of any revolutionary new approaches to trading that will ensure a new trader will stumble into a highly profitable trading career from day one of their trading experience. To be sure, rates of return for traders and investors have remained fairly consistent for the last 20 years despite billions of dollars of ongoing market research by large institutional trading organizations. In short, most of the “revolutionary” new techniques are recycled version of current oscillators of older trading techniquesFact: Profitable trading still lies in the domain of highly skilled and experienced traders. I am unaware of any revolutionary new trading techniques that have dramatically improved the rate of success in trading, including the most recent wrinkle in trading marketing: the trading robot. The automated trading on Wall Street is generally performed by computers in the “Cray Supercomputer” class of computer. It takes very little analytical skill to reason that a trading robot that retails for $279 will fill your pockets with hundreds of thousands of dollars. Trading robots are just another example of the “next best” innovation. The algorithms that I have been able to analyze on several trading robots rely upon simple moving averages and well-known oscillators. This is hardly the stuff of any new revolutionary approach. They are quite profitable for the individuals who are selling these machines, but the empirical evidence has shown that they typically performed poorly.Finally, many of the trading courses offered confine themselves to a strict systems approach to trading. I will spare the reader an extended discussion on the shortcomings of systems-based trading, but will comment that systems-based trading is generally effective during trending markets. Further, depending upon which source you care to quote, the market typically trends 30% to 40% of the time. During consolidation periods, commonly referred to as range bound trading, systems based trading often struggles mightily. Further, markets often undergo periods of very random trading and systems-based trading is poorly suited for this type of trading. In short, most system-based trading approaches work well under well-defined conditions. I would also point out that few traders require any special trading system to trade a trending market, as these markets are where the majority of trading profits occur and are relatively easy to spot and from which to profit.Fact: It is my experience that successful and consistent traders learn to read and interpret charts, as opposed to confine their learning experience to the tight parameters of system trading. This is not a blanket indictment of all systems-based trading, but a generalization from my experience with systems based trading. Most profitable traders are proficient in a wide range of market conditions and to understand the trading style required to trade those market conditions ease efficiently. Further, learning to trade in a wide variety of trading conditions is generally accomplished through the experience gained by trading with another experienced and profitable trader, or through a mentorship program with a qualified and experience trader.In summary, I have tried to emphasize that trading programs offered may not be a good choice for new traders. Specifically, I have warned against utilizing trading systems that offer inflated profit rates. Finally, I would encourage all traders to find an experienced trader who may be a friend, or hiring an experienced trader through a mentoring program. I have no doubt that there are trading courses that cover some of the deficiencies we have outlined in this article but as yet not been able to locate such a program. I encourage new traders to give some of the above points careful thought, because trading education is often an expensive proposition, but under the right conditions most individuals can learn to trade profitably and with consistency.
Unsecured Small Business Loans – Good News – Stimulus Bill Allows SBA 90 Percent Guarantee For Loans
Anyone remotely involved with small businesses, whether as a consultant, lender, supplier, leasing specialist, trade association, or simply as a consumer who is tired of driving by sections of town and wondering why your favorite business unceremoniously threw in the towel, would very much like to hear some good news. Not to mention the small business owner itself. After all, there are 27 million small businesses that deserve to be thriving in this nation, but too often were ignored by the Bush administration. Classically non-complainers by nature, they just want a scrap of hope thrown their way. And I’m not talking about wide-eyed idealists looking for handouts-in all due respect to Emily Dickinson, they’re not looking for the”thing with feathers that perches in the soul”. Just give us a few bucks and we will run with it. This is a continuing article (20 in all) on the subject: Help. Is anyone out there loaning to small businesses anymore?Fortunately there is a loan program out there and SBA lenders are actually making loans currently: the Community Express Loan Program. This gives unsecured small business loans between $5,000 and $50,000 with very little paperwork, answers typically in two days, interest rates presently at 7.75%, funding and two weeks, and monies wired directly to your business account. There are still lenders participating in this program, although Congress has failed to make the program permanent and still has a 10% cap on the number of loans.Enter the Obama stimulus bill. Let us look how it affects this program and small business lending as a whole.If you have tried to wade through the 1,100 or so pages of the new stimulus bill (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009), you know its like chipping through granite. But let me pull out a little gem. It now allows the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA to you) to guarantee up to 90% of loans made by private lenders under their program. Let me explain. This is great for Community Express.When the Small Business Act was enacted in 1958, it had a very simple mission. Find a way to get loans to small businesses that couldn’t get them through traditional channels. It did this in an ingenious way. They knew banks where reluctant to loan to small businesses, especially startups, because of fear of failure. So the SBA collected a fee on each loan and used this as a fund to pay banks if there was a default. Bingo, there was invented the SBA guarantee fee. It doesn’t take a degree in rocket science from MIT and an MBA from Harvard to know this gives incentives to the banks to make more loans.SBA loan programs have guarantees from 50% to 85%. Specifically, the SBA currently has an 85% guarantee on loans up to $150,000 and up to 75% on loans above $150,000. On the other hand, there are some programs that only go as high as 50%, including the Express Loan program (for those types of loans the new guarantee will not change). With the new stimulus bill, the SBA has the right to increase these fees to 90%.Think about this for a moment. Simple math tells us more guarantee, the greater the likelihood of the bank making the loan. For goodness sakes, 90% is tapping on the door of a 100% guarantee! Also note the guaranteed portion is typically sold on the secondary market (which has recently shut down to almost nothing) so there is more chance for loans to be sold and more money to go back into the coffers of the banks for further lending.Notice I said the SBA has the right to increase it to 90%. It can pick which program. And it has not occurred yet. But if I was a betting person, I would say they would be seriously looking at most of the programs because everyone is scraping for ideas to revive the economy.For those addicted to primary source documents, this is what the new statute, in relevant part (my attorney wanted me to add that) says:SEC. 502. ECONOMIC STIMULUS LENDING PROGRAM FOR SMALL BUSINESSES. (a) PURPOSE- The purpose of this section is to permit the Small Business Administration to guarantee up to 90 percent of qualifying small business loans made by eligible lenders.
(b) DEFINITIONS- For purposes of this section:
(1) The term ‘Administrator’ means the Administrator of the Small Business Administration.
(2) The term ‘qualifying small business loan’ means any loan to a small business concern pursuant to section 7(a) of the Small Business Act (15 U.S.C. 636) or title V of the Small Business Investment Act of 1958 (15 U.S.C. 695 and following) except for such loans made under section 7(a)(31).There is also a sunset provision under Subparagraph (f) that the guarantees are only good for one year after enactment of the bill, unless extended by Congress.So what does it do for me now as a small business owner? Well now the not so good news. I predict the SBA will be increasing many of its programs to 90%. But to get the banks in the lending mood again, there has to be a secondary market. There is also new legislation on that, which we will discuss in another article. But once we have a secondary market, I predict that they banks will not only loan, but do so in a big way. For three reasons:First, history tells us when there is economic inactivity due primarily to depressed conditions, when the cycle changes for the better, like a sling shot affect, it changes dramatically. Remember when people were unable to refinance or purchase their homes because of tight markets and high interest rates? The rates went down and many jumped at the chance to refinance, improve their homes, and purchase (some say too precipitously) with abundance. Although this is an overstatement and also depends upon other factors such as employment, standards of living, etc., the analogy holds that when things loosen up, there will be a substantial number of business loans.Secondly, banks are in large part in the business of making loans and they have not been doing so for some time. They will be anxious to make profits again.Lastly, simple economics tells us when there is a vacuum in the market; capital will rush in and take advantage of that open market and initial lack of competition. Large banks are not making business loans so small community banks are starting to rush in to take over the arena. Give them a secondary market and they will explode.So for the small business owner, I think this news of 90 % guarantees is favorable. Why did it take them so long?
Enjoy Small Business Success – Tips For Getting Started
How do you get started with your own small business? If you are looking for an easy business to get into, there are many options. But where do you start?Business opportunities are plentiful and it can seem difficult at first to make a choice that will fit your lifestyle. If this is truly what you want, you can start your own business and get started with research and with mustering up a lot of motivation.Many people start a small business are looking for debt relief and the biggest solution to debt problems are debt solutions that include earning more money to pay debts off. More than ever, people look for an opportunity to start a small business and work at home to change their finances. Debts are a good motivator. Just thinking about life without debt can give you the juice to propel forward in life.If you’ve decided to make more money and create wealth for yourself plus give yourself the gift of freedom that comes with having your own small home business, you need some tips to help you get started. You can work at home and get yourself out of debt. Solutions to your problems can be found quickly and easily if you adopt the right attitude about the brightness of your future.Here are two important tips to help you get started on the road to a future successful business venture:1. Gather knowledge. Learn everything you can about your chosen industry. Whether you want to get into a travel business, a computer home business, some type of business consulting or something else entirely, you need to lap up as much knowledge as you can get your hands and eyes upon.Business people love to talk to new small business owners and share tips. The internet provides a wealth of resources for you to learn to do things like:
write a business plan,
get a small business loan,
deal with technology;
and more.
Spend as much time as you can learning other people’s secrets. Many are willing to share stories of their success and failures so you can succeed without making similar mistakes. Join small business management mentoring groups, online business forums and local business associations and network while you learn.2. Network. Consult with everyone you can about your small business opportunity. Small business management includes more than just selling a product and managing a business. You need to learn to advertise, learn marketing, do sales and administration and wear many different hats. Through networking you’ll learn about client opportunities, technological information that can help you boost your business and learn ways to save money and increase productivity. Make as many online and offline connections as you can to help you get your small home business off the ground.